Victoria had been awarded the 2026 Commonwealth Games in March last year, but made the shock decision to pull out in July ©Getty Images

The Victoria State Upper House inquiry into the cancellation of the 2026 Commonwealth Games has heard the initial bid significantly underestimated the costs of using an unprecedented regional model, and concerns had been growing from earlier this year.

The announcement in July that Victoria was pulling out of hosting the next Commonwealth Games came as a huge shock, and claims from then-Premier Daniel Andrews that costs had risen to between AUD$6 billion (£3.1 billion/$3.8 billion/€3.6 billion) and AUD$7 billion (£3.6 billion/$4.5 billion/€4.2 billion) were heavily disputed by the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) and Commonwealth Games Australia.

Victoria's lawyers ultimately negotiated an AUD$380 million (£198 million/$243 million/€229 million) settlement with the CGF for exiting the Host City Contract, and the status of the 2026 Commonwealth Games remain uncertain, with the CGF suggesting it would be willing to delay until 2027 to find a replacement.

The Upper House inquiry began this week, with a Senate inquiry and Victorian Auditor-General’s Office also scrutinising the cancellation.

It was revealed the disputed AUD$7 billion figure was based on worst-case scenario analysis.

Current Premier Jacinta Allen was informed costs of the 2026 Commonwealth Games had almost doubled from initial estimates in March ©Getty Images
Current Premier Jacinta Allen was informed costs of the 2026 Commonwealth Games had almost doubled from initial estimates in March ©Getty Images

Department of Jobs, Skills, Industry and Regions secretary Tim Ada told the Upper House inquiry the initial estimate of an AUD$2.6 billion (£1.4 billion/$1.7 billion/€1.6 billion) budget did not "reflect the true cost of delivering a sporting programme spread across five cities", as reported by 9News.

It relied on "top-down estimates and benchmarking against known amounts from the 2018 Gold Coast Games", but inflated to AUD$4.5 billion (£2.3 billion/$2.9 billion/€2.7 billion) one year later.

Current Premier and then-Deputy Premier and Minister for the Commonwealth Games Jacinta Allen was informed of this in March, but asked the Department to reduce costs, according to Ada.

Ada added risks emerged during the period from April to June this year, culminating in a fresh warning the Games could cost AUD$4.2 billion (£2.2 billion/$2.7 billion).

Andrews announced the cancellation of the Games on July 18.

Organising Committee chief executive Jeroen Weimar told the inquiry he was one of "a handful" of staff still employed by Victoria 2026, and budgetary issues first emerged in February.

Victoria 2026 chief executive Jeroen Weimar said cost issues with the Commonwealth Games emerged
Victoria 2026 chief executive Jeroen Weimar said cost issues with the Commonwealth Games emerged "by the middle of February" ©Getty Images

"Through our work, it became clear by the middle of February it would not be enough," he said, quoted by 9News.

"We had very little room for planning and for consultation and for contingency."

Allan is under pressure to attend the inquiry, having thus far refused, claiming it is "standard practice" members of the Lower House do not appear before Upper House Committees.

However, she was urged by the Committee chair David Limbrick to consider the invitation to attend, insisting there were "a lot of questions" for the Government.

An interim report is expected to be completed by the inquiry at the end of April next year.