Kevin Alavy, managing director of Futures Sport + Entertainment (FS+E), a global sports research consultancy, told insidethegames he expected a "significant decline" in the number of people watching the curtain-raising extravaganza for the 2012 Olympic Games compared to its counterpart in Beijing four years ago.

This would be because of timing issues, with the ceremony in the Olympic Stadium (pictured top) due to be broadcast in the middle of the night in many heavily populated Asian countries, and the high population of China, the 2008 host market.

If viewers of "as-live" coverage and recorded highlights are taken into account, however, the overall audience in 2012 could creep up towards the one billion level attained for the live broadcast of the 2008 Opening Ceremony – the first television programme in history to attract such viewer numbers.


FS+E, which has developed an expertise in monitoring global viewing figures for leading sports events over several years, found that 984 million people worldwide tuned in for at least part of the 2008 spectacular held in Beijing's Bird's Nest Stadium (pictured above).

Since that figure excludes those watching in public places, as opposed to at home, it seems safe to conclude that the broadcast attracted the first-ever one billion-plus live television audience.

"China is an anomaly," Alavy pointed out.

"Its population is more than 20 times larger than that of the United Kingdom and an extremely high proportion of these people watched the 2008 Opening Ceremony (pictured below, swimmer Mark Foster leading Team GB during the Parade of Nations).

"You had a combination of media saturation across dozens of Chinese TV channels, great national pride, nurtured partly by high expectations of Chinese success in the Games themselves, and the world's most populous country as host nation."

Compared with 2008, Alavy said: "I would expect the decline in the live audience to be upwards of 100 million people.


"I think the live audience will still be over 500 million, but there will be a significant decline compared to 2008.

"A lot depends on whether China experiences a 'halo effect' as a result of hosting the 2008 Games.

"This might help to keep viewing figures high there, even though the ceremony will be broadcast early in the morning in China."

Alavy said that the best time to have held the Opening Ceremony, from the point of view of maximising the live TV global audience, would have been 1-2pm UK time.

"For billions of people living in Asia, the Opening Ceremony will take place in dead of night," he said.

He added that the broadcast of "as-live" coverage and recorded highlights had the potential to very substantially augment the number of genuinely live viewers.

Contact the writer of this story at [email protected]


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