David Owen

Democracy, FIFA-style - even allowing for some of the weird and wonderful variants of the concept elsewhere in the sporting world, there is nothing quite like it.

Flying over to Zurich on Wednesday I jotted down a list of the more significant questions that were then hanging unanswered, with around 48 hours to go before Friday’s vote.

● Would there be another police raid (like last year)?

● Would Sepp Blatter, whose 18-year stint as FIFA President is drawing to a close, or Michel Platini, the UEFA President who once looked likely to succeed him, be permitted to attend the Congress?

● If they were, what would Blatter, in particular, do? The Swiss veteran was a past master at coaxing successive Congresses to do his bidding.

● Would any of the five candidates - Prince Ali bin Al Hussein, Jérôme Champagne, Gianni Infantino, Shaikh Salman Bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa and Tokyo Sexwale - drop out ahead of the vote?

● Would the election be conducted in transparent voting-booths?” (And would this have been a world first?)

Prince Ali had his appeal to install transparent voting booths rejected by the Court of Arbitration for Sport
Prince Ali had his appeal to install transparent voting booths rejected by the Court of Arbitration for Sport ©Getty Images

In the two hours or so between touching down on Swiss soil and completing this piece, two of these questions have now been answered.

First, a statement by Prince Ali made clear that transparent booths are now off the agenda, alas.

Then came word that the FIFA Appeal Committee had dismissed Blatter’s and Platini’s appeals while reducing the pair’s bans from eight to six years.

But you get the point: this is no ordinary election.

On the question of who might drop out, the prime candidate is undoubtedly Sexwale, a South African businessman.

One of the few almost universally hazarded predictions ahead of Friday’s vote is that, having failed to secure the backing of the African Football Confederation (CAF), the South African commands support numbered in the low single digits, conceivably just that of his own national association.

It is hard to see what is in it for him to stay the course all the way through to the vote.

Other than this, making predictions about the likely outcome is fraught with risk.

Take the example of CAF, the biggest Confederation with 54 FIFA Member Associations.

South African businessman Tokyo Sexwale could yet drop out before the vote due to a perceived lack of support
South African businessman Tokyo Sexwale could yet drop out before the vote due to a perceived lack of support ©Getty Images

Infantino, who has waged by far the most aggressive campaign, claimed this week that “more than half” of these African Member-Associations would vote for him.

This was following a short visit to Robben Island at the invitation of Sexwale, who spent 13 years in prison there.

For his claim to be fulfilled, at least 28 African Member Associations would need to vote for him.

Given that Prince Ali is expected to claim Egypt and Liberia, that would leave Shaikh Salman, whose candidacy CAF has endorsed, with at most 24 African votes.

Yet a source close to CAF, who may therefore be presumed to desire a Salman victory, puts the total likely to be captured by the Bahraini at 49 of the 54 votes.

That is quite a gap.

If you endorse the view that it is better to reach judgements on the basis of what candidates do than what they say, Infantino’s visit to the Cape suggests to me that he thinks any vote might be crucial, and thus that he expects a close race.

Another key consideration may be how many of Asia’s up to 46 votes Prince Ali and Champagne can woo away from Salman.

With no candidate of its own and a leadership decimated by the ongoing FBI investigation, CONCACAF, the Confederation for North and Central America and the Caribbean, is likely to split.

But how many of that region’s 35 Member Associations will side with the United States, which is widely expected to support Infantino?

Will CONMEBOL, the South American Confederation, with just 10 members, really side unanimously with Infantino? And what about Oceania, which accounts for 11 votes?

UEFA general secretary Gianni Infantino has claimed he is confident of securing at least half of the CAF votes
UEFA general secretary Gianni Infantino has claimed he is confident of securing at least half of the CAF votes ©Gianni2016/Twitter

Finally, can the Swiss candidate, who hails from a place called Brig, just up the road from Blatter’s home-town, secure absolute blanket support from the European Confederation UEFA’s 53 Member Associations?

It could be argued that, with the field set to be gradually whittled down if necessary until one candidate emerges with a majority, the only truly critical consideration is who voters ultimately prefer out of the two presumed big fish - Infantino and Salman.

Should one of this pair establish a significant lead in the first round of voting, however, this could well trigger a stampede of support for that candidate in the subsequent round from voters keen to be able to say they have backed the presumed winner.

I would not be surprised if this dynamic leads to support for the presumed smaller fry in the contest getting squeezed.

So many questions with less than two days to go before the all-important answer emerges.

In the meantime, I’m off to try and talk to some voters.