Barra, a former sports managing director of the Italian National Olympic Committee, who served as deputy chief executive of Turin 2006, uses a formula based on World Championship results during the current Olympic cycle.

Ahead of Beijing 2008, he projected Britain to win 48 medals, not far off their final total of 47, while he also correctly predicted the United States to win the most medals.

But in the last two Games, he has got the country with the most golds wrong, predicting the US in 2008 and China in London, when in fact the two powerhouses finished the opposite way around.

In his initial estimate for Pyeongchang at the beginning of the month, the Italian forecast Norway to finish top of the table, with 11 golds in a 19 medal haul, with US, Germany and Austria occupying the next three place.

Yet, following World Championships in biathlon, bobsleigh and skeleton, and short track speed skating, Germany has risen to the poll position, with a projected 14 gold, 11 silver and five bronze medals to put them two golds clear of Norway.

Germany are currently tipped to edge Norway to top place on the Olympic medals table at Pyeongchang 2018 ©Luciano Barra



Germany won three gold medal at both the biathlon and bobsleigh events, while Norway won just one across the three competitions, courtesy of biathlete Johannes Thingnes Bø in the men's 10 kilometres sprint.

US are third in the latest list, forecast to win nine golds in a 23 medal haul, while Austria remain in fourth.

Interestingly, 2014 Winter Olympic hosts and medal table toppers Russia are only projected to place fifth, with seven golds in comparison with the 13 they won in Sochi, while France are up to fifth after three gold medals at the World Biathlon Championships in Kontiolahti.

Another to enjoy an improved projection is Pyeongchang 2018 hosts South Korea, who were only predicted one bronze in the initial release but are now forecast three golds after topping the medals table at the World Short Track Speed Skating Championships in Moscow.

But the notable omission from the top places is Canada.

They are predicted just one gold, along with 10 silver and four bronze, putting them 17th overall in the projected table.

This may change however, with five more World Championships forecast this season, in figure skating, men's and women's ice hockey and men's and women's curling, with the women's event already underway in Sapporo.

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March 2015: Norway to top Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics medals table, projection claims