As well as the usual five-star opulence with all the trimmings that can be expected at any meeting in the Olympic world, in the very next room from the lobby lies what is advertised as the "only Las Vegas-style casino" in the region.

It is grand and extravagant but, given how the Southern Hemisphere summer is now over, it all feels a little bit worn-out and in need of a shake-up. The casino also leaves you in no doubt that money is the most important aspect.

Similar points could also be made about PASO. 

The continental bloc was entrapped under the leadership of one man in Mexico’s Mario Vázquez Raña for 40 years until his death, while still in office in early 2015. Rather than usher in change immediately, Uruguay’s Julio Maglione was elected on an interim basis for a one-year term which has now lasted two-years. It is now clearly time for change.

Like the proverbial child at the candy store, however, granting an election to those not used to choice has prompted chaos, conflict and confusion. Even now, with three days to go, virtually everyone has a different idea as to who will triumph out of Brazil’s Carlos Nuzman, Chile’s Neven Ilic and Dominican Republic’s José Joaquín Puello.

On the one hand, it is refreshing to have a genuine contest in an era of sporting leaders like Thomas Bach and Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad Al-Sabah who like to "control the message". We have become used to elections in which only one candidate or city stands after other contenders are "persuaded" to withdraw. 

It is, therefore, great to have democracy in action as the 41 PASO members cast their ballot. Ten of these members will vote twice as a reward for having hosted a previous edition of the Pan American Games.

What struck me as less pleasing is that, of all the people I have spoken to so far, only one has mentioned sport and support for athletes as a reason for choosing one candidate over the other. Yes, all three will speak about such issues when doing an "on the record" media interview or when writing their manifesto, although even then there appear few discernible differences.

But it is clear just from sitting in the Conrad lobby that, except for a few distracted by "accidentally stumbling" into the casino, virtually every delegate is chasing something for themselves: be it an Executive Committee position or support for another less obvious objective or ambition.

When Karl Marx wrote that history was about economic structures and long-term processes rather than individuals, he obviously hadn't attended a PASO General Assembly. Here it is all about personalities, about "x" who is voting for "y" because they are old friends and he has long detested "z" or about "a" who has reservations for "b" but thinks he will be best for achieving his personal goals. A complex game of strategical chess is unfolding. Conspiracy theories about who is colluding with who are, naturally, spreading faster than at the annual general meeting of the Flat Earth Society.

This is sport politics at its best, although the politics is clearly more important than the sports.

Nobody knows with any certainty who is going to win. To quote some of the estimates I have been told, Puello has 31 first round votes, Nuzman between 24 and 28 and Ilic at least 12. Given how there are 51 votes in total, this clearly does not add up. I am slightly wary of predicting anything, particularly because my linguistic uselessness means I have spoken to more of the English-speaking delegates than those from Spanish, French, Portuguese and Dutch-speaking parts.

But, from what I hear, Puello is the candidate most likely to gain a first round victory, although even this seems a long shot.

The Caribbean have attempted to foster some sort of regional collaboration. St Lucia's Richard Peterkin and, eventually, St Vincent and the Grenadines' Keith Joseph, each backed out of the contest when it became apparent they did not have enough support. Peterkin now hopes to become treasurer while Joseph is seeking to retain one of the vice-presidents posts.

In theory, Puello should, therefore, dominate the Caribbean region. His support is also strong in Central America and he claims to have received the backing of the North American triumvirate of Canada, United States and Mexico. These three all have two votes, as does Cuba, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and his own Dominican Republic. The magic number is 26 he needs to pass if he is to gain a majority.

"I am confident of a first-round victory," the 76-year-old told insidethegames today. "You have to remember that this process has been four years in the making before the death of Mario [Vázquez Raña]."

Trouble is, it may not be so simple. As I began this piece, there were raised voices in front of me as two Presidents of different Caribbean National Olympic Committees argued it out. They, clearly, disagreed over whether the region should vote as one bloc.

Ilic and his Mexican running mate Ivar Sisniega - a current PASO vice-president who is considered hugely capable but hindered by a lack of support in his own country - embarked on a Caribbean tour earlier this year. They are confident of a handful of votes among the different islands and also enjoy support in Central America.

Ilic, who turned 55 this month, has been described as "aloof" by some but has always seemed highly personable to me. He is the only one of the three young enough to become an International Olympic Committee (IOC) member and would be the most obvious force for change.

I get told off every time I mention age when considering this race but, with Puello 76 and Nuzman 75, the disparity is obvious. Ilic needs a late charge but, if he can survive the first round, he will certainly have a chance. He seems to have few enemies and would surely pick up a lot of second preference votes in both South America and the Caribbean. He also seems to have rejected any attempts to do a deal and the consolation prize of running again for the Presidency in four years' time.

And then we have Nuzman. It is fair to say that he is a man who polarises opinion in the Olympic Movement. "Carlos deserves this as a reward for the success of Rio 2016," I was told this morning. "How could we even consider electing Nuzman after the disaster that was Rio," said someone else.

Others speak disparagingly about his age and health, others still trumpet how he and only he has the necessary political nous and experience in the sports world. From my perspective, it seems amazing how he even could want to stand again so soon after overseeing preparations for one of the most stressful Games in history. Given how the Organising Committee still owe millions to suppliers and Authorised Ticket Resellers (ATR), it would certainly not leave a great impression to the wider world.

And yet…there is certainly a case here of the "better the devil you know than the devil you don't" and many believe he is the preferred candidate of the IOC. This is partly due to the support he is receiving from Argentine Olympic Committee President Gerardo Werthein who, if you cast your minds back to the IOC Session in Rio de Janeiro, was the main soldier thrown onto the breach to attack the World Anti-Doping Agency on Russia. IOC President Thomas Bach, apparently, arrived with Werthein from Buenos Aires this morning.

Others have rejected this hypothesis and suggested the IOC would want anything but more Nuzman after working with him for so long before Rio 2016.

IOC support would add something, but it is not clear how it would completely transfer to votes. He seems to have good support in South America which, when countries with two votes are added, could take him to a dozen or so. Beyond that, it currently appears hard to see where his support is coming from. One or two in Central America, one or two in the Caribbean, maybe, but he will certainly need support from many others, including the North American big hitters if he is to win. Like Ilic, he is seemingly hoping to survive the first round and advance in the second.

Yet this is all wild speculation and, even if accurate now, could have completely changed by the vote on Wednesday (April 26).

The thing that fascinates me about PASO is the diversity. In a geographical sense, with the superpowers of the US, Canada, Mexico and Brazil on a virtual par with the likes of Aruba, Belize and St Kitts and Nevis, but also in a linguistic, cultural and sporting sense. In the Americas you have some of the best sporting countries but also some of the great overachievers, like Jamaica, and underachievers. 

There are several in South America, for instance, who have won virtually no Olympic medals in their history, despite a healthy population. Surely, they should be focusing on how to redefine their sporting models to bring about greater success?

This will hopefully be something that the new PASO President can help encourage. The future of the Pan American Games and other regional competitions will also be key, as well as a means to professionalise the commercial and organisational arms of the bloc.

But all these are currently topics for another day. 

For now it is all about politics and the quid pro quo of bargaining and negotiations as election day nears.

It would be safer to bet all my pesos on the blackjack table in next door's casino rather than confidently pick a winner now.