Well hallelujah and well done to UK Sport.

By embarking on a public consultation on how it spends its high performance funding over the Olympic quadrennium culminating with the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games, the elite sports agency has demonstrated that it is, to paraphrase the old Midland Bank advertising slogan, "the listening quango".

The 'No Compromise' doctrine that still animates its funding decisions has proved the most brilliantly successful sports programme I have witnessed.

But, having lifted Britain to an unsustainable third in the medals table at London 2012, it has plainly served its purpose.

Perhaps, after Rio 2016, we can move on to a system which both defines success in a more useful and sophisticated way than simply counting Olympic/Paralympic medals, and which does not leave team sports at a disadvantage when competing for funding with primarily individual sports.

There is a problem though: before you decide how to share out your cake, it is usually advisable to procure it; and, as far as I can see, the Tokyo 2020 cake is very likely to be significantly smaller than its Rio 2016 counterpart.

What is more, the looming cake shortfall is partly UK Sport's fault.

London 2012 was so successful that when it ended, not only had Team GB bagged 185 medals - a truly astonishing 29 of which were Olympic golds - but a tidy balance attributable to UK Sport had accumulated in the so-called National Lottery Distribution Fund.

Team GB won an incredible 185 medals at London 2012, but could the short-termism of UK Sport's aim for Rio cost them hitting these heights in future Games? ©Getty Images

At March 31, 2013, UK Sport's first financial year-end after London 2012, this balance stood at just under £78 million ($125 million/€99 million).

This money could have been used to supplement other funding, from the Exchequer and the National Lottery, over quite a long period.

Unfortunately, it is starting to look like the vast majority may be consumed over just one Olympic cycle, in pursuit of a publicly-stated Rio 2016 target of 66 Olympic medals that might most kindly be described as short-termist.

UK Sport's 2012-13 annual report sets out the position with admirable clarity.

This stated: "In December our board agreed a financial plan for 2013-17, allocating c.£550 million ($880 million/€700 million) over the period, this was made possible by the budgeted release of £46 million ($74 million/€59 million) from our Lottery balance over the 2013-17 period...

"The financial plan for 2013-17 was made possible by the planned release of £46 million ($74 million/€59 million) from the lottery balance, unless a similar balance can be established by late 2015, and assuming all other factors remain constant, then there will be significantly less to invest in the subsequent cycle than there has been towards Rio."

So, with a year to go until "late 2015", how are things looking?

Actually, worse: this is because "all other factors" have not remained constant; namely, Lottery proceeds in the first part of the 2013-2017 cycle have fallen.

They dropped by 14 per cent in UK Sport's 2013-14 financial year, from £88.3 million ($141.2 million/€112.3 million) to £75.7 million ($121 million/€96.3 million).

A funding shortfall could see the funding cut for UK Sports Federations, as was seen with British Basketball at the beginning of this year ©Getty Images




And - guess what? - minutes to a UK Sport board meeting last June suggest that the Lottery balance may ultimately be further drawn down to make up the shortfall.

"Board noted that Lottery income in 2013-14 was lower than the [Department for Culture Media and Sport] projection for the year which have traditionally been a reasonable guide," the minutes state.

"Current estimated balance at the end of the cycle is £24 million ($38 million/€31 million) and Board agreed that any further reduction presents a risk to the Tokyo strategy but an absolute minimum held should be £15 million ($24 million/€19 million)."

Let's assume for a moment that the £78 million ($125 million/€99 million) balance in March 2013 has shrunk to £15 million ($24 million/€19 million) come March 2017.

That would mean that £63 million ($101 million/€80 million) would have been absorbed in the one solitary Rio cycle and that, even if the remaining £15 million ($24 million/€19 million) were applied to Tokyo, a further £48 million ($77 million/€61 million) would need to be found from somewhere for the cake not to shrink.

What are the chances of such sums being forthcoming?

Well, UK Sport's Exchequer funding is set to fall from £240 million ($384 million/€305 million) over the 2009-2013 period to £158 million ($253 million/€201 million) between 2013 and 2017, so to get it from there would require a policy U-turn.

With a general election coming next year, you could not say this was entirely out of the question, but given the pressure on public finances, you would have to think it unlikely.

That leaves the Lottery, which does now have a new boss, Andy Duncan, who is doubtless brimming with new ideas.

Even if National Lottery Funding was to meet the expectations for Rio 2016, it is unlikely to touch the numbers needed for Tokyo 2020 ©Getty Images


It looks though as if the Lottery will do well to keep up with expectations for Rio, much less find an extra £48 million ($77 million/€61 million) for the Tokyo cycle.

UK Sport's expected Lottery receipts for 2013-2017 when last I checked in the summer were £337 million ($539 million/€429 million).

Yet if you multiply what the Lottery actually contributed in 2013-2014 by four, you arrive at a figure of just under £303 million ($485 million/€386 million).

Lottery operator Camelot's latest financial figures, released earlier this month, revealed that returns to good causes in the period from April 1 to September 27 have at least stopped falling.

But they were up only 0.4 per cent from a year earlier.

So while the final figure derives from a complex equation, it would be no surprise if UK Sport's share of the Lottery pot in Year 2 of the Rio cycle were again less than £80 million ($128 million/€102 million).

Yes, you probably still wouldn't altogether rule out the possibility of UK Sport's Lottery receipts coming within striking distance of that £337 million ($539 million/€429 million) figure for the full four years from 2013-2017.

But for them to get up as high as £385 million ($616 million/€490 million) in 2017-2021, or perhaps even higher if Exchequer funding is further slashed, already seems a tall order - unless sports bodies such as UK Sport are awarded a bigger share of the overall Lottery handout.

So, respect to UK Sport for embarking on this new review of whether its investment principles should be modified, but let it not distract from the looming Tokyo cycle funding squeeze and the needless short termism that has contributed to it.

David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup and London 2012. Owen's Twitter feed can be accessed here.