(At the time I was also probably thinking why not Jimi Hendrix, Captain Beefheart or Frank Zappa? To which the obvious answer was - "not born in London, not even English, dummy.")

Fair play - Alvin Stardust, or Bernard Jewry to give him his real name, was a Londoner all right, born in Muswell Hill. But so was David Bowie, originally David Jones - a Brixton-born lad who also did the glam rock thing and so much else thereafter.

So the message here? Well it's a roundabout way of saying that most judgements, and particularly arbitrary ones, can turn out to be either wrong or at the very least questionable.

And it is as true in the sporting as in the musical domain.

Ten years ago, Richard Gasquet of France was being talked of as the rising star of world tennis. In 2002, aged 15, he had become the youngest player to qualify for a Tennis Masters event and subsequently the youngest player to win a tour-level main draw match as he beat Argentina's Franco Squillari in the first round in Monte Carlo.

A 15-year-old Richard Gasquet en route to a first round win at the Masters Event in Monte Carlo in 2002 ©Getty Images

Still aged 15, Gasquet made his Grand Slam debut in the French Open, and while he was beaten in the first round he still managed to take a set off the eventual champion, Albert Costa. Gasquet is still a massive talent, but to date his best results in a grand slam event are the semi-finals he reached at Wimbledon in 2007 and at the US Open last year.

It may sound odd to describe an Olympic gold medallist in the sprint relay as someone who underachieved. But in the case of Great Britain's Mark Lewis-Francis this is still a viable position. Simply because, as a teenager, this product of Darlaston, in the West Midlands, was so startlingly good that he appeared on the brink of becoming a world-beater.

I was working for The Independent at the time, and more than once phoned through to the staff room of the school Lewis-Francis attended in order to ask some helpful teacher to round him up and present him on the other end of the line.

In 2000, already world youth champion, he turned down the chance to run for Britain at the Olympics in Sydney, preferring to contest the World Junior Championships, where he won the 100 metres. It was viewed by some as a miscalculation, by others as a sensible step towards future attainment.

Mark Lewis-Francis celebrates a 100m gold at the 2000 IAAF World Junior Championships - Olympic gold would follow, but in the relay, not the individual event ©Getty Images

Donovan Bailey, Canada's 1996 Olympic champion, said after racing against the young Briton before the 2000 Olympics: "Mark is, quite simply, the most phenomenal and exciting athlete I've seen. Britain must be so excited because he'll win the Olympic 100m in Athens".

A year later, in Edmonton, I watched Lewis-Francis set what would have been a world junior 100m record of 9.97sec in his quarter-final heat at the IAAF World Championships - only for the time to be ruled out for record purposes because of a wind gauge malfunction.

Despite his obvious disappointment, it seemed only a matter of time before this youngster ran another sub-10sec 100m. But, despite his glorious anchor run at the 2004 Athens Games, where he held off the former United States Olympic and world champion Maurice Greene on the last leg to claim gold, he never did.

When 18-year-old James Wilson came on as a sub for Manchester United in Sunday's 1-0 defeat at Manchester City, he looked immediately capable of disturbing the reigning Premier League titleholders' defence. Wilson made his mark during his United debut in May, scoring twice in a 3-1 win over Hull City. He is being talked about in exciteable terms, and rightly so.

But it is always the same for young players - they can't just be good, they have to be "The Next..." - in United's case, the next George Best, the next Eric Cantona, the next David Beckham. And so the pressure is there for this bright young product of United's Academy system.

City themselves had a similarly shining talent in 2006 in 19-year-old Michael Johnson. But injuries laid him low, and he was released by City at the age of 26.

Michael Johnson, a rising star at Manchester City in 2008 - and now out of the game
©Getty Images


During the same time span, another arresting performer, wide midfielder David Bentley, was transferred from Blackburn to Tottenham for £15 million ($24 million/€19 million). The initials may have been a subliminal prompt, but he was described in some quarters as "the next David Beckham". He went on a series of loans to other clubs before quitting the game.

Of course, these things can often work the other way. The history of Southampton Football Club contains a surreal period when Sir Clive Woodward, having guided England's Rugby Union team to World Cup victory in 2003, found himself working as performance director alongside "H" - the quintessentially Cockney manager Harry Redknapp. Oh what a happy time there wasn't.

Shortly before Woodward made his inevitable departure from the club there was a press opportunity there at which he spoke about his aims and ambitions. The man who had guided England's rugby union team to their greatest triumph in Australia three years earlier proudly displayed a small lounge which had been created for the club's youth players. It was not what you would describe as a groundbreaking achievement.

We were then ushered into the club's indoor facility and invited to watch one of the trainees taking a few potshots at goal. The youngster took a penalty. We watched. He missed. We made our judgement. We erred.

His name was Gareth Bale.

Sir Clive Woodward pictured in 2004 at Twickenham with the trophies England's rugby union players have won under his guidance, including the World Cup (second left). But his impact on Southampton FC was less spectacular ©Getty Images



Having made it clear just how precarious are any predictions of historic import or future success, let me conclude by cautiously predicting a big future for a 17-year-old rower I saw in action at the Fuller's Head of the River Fours raced on Saturday, Sam Mejier.

This young man has already won the Pairs Head race this year, in company with the boatman at Westminster School, where he is a pupil. He came to the Tideway after successive weekends of single sculling triumph in the youth section at the Head of the Charles Regatta in Massachusetts and then the prestigious Armada Cup rowed on Lake Wohlen near Bern, in Switzerland.

Meijer's disappointment at only finishing third overall on the day in a composite Imperial College/Westminster School quadruple scull behind two superfast Leander boats stuffed with world champions and experienced internationals testified to a competitiveness that could see him performing at the same level before too long.

Fingers - or should that be oars - crossed.

Mike Rowbottom, one of Britain's most talented sportswriters, covered the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics as chief feature writer for insidethegames, having covered the previous five summer Games, and four winter Games, for The Independent. He has worked for the Daily Mail, The Times, The Observer, The Sunday Correspondent and The Guardian. His latest book Foul Play – the Dark Arts of Cheating in Sport (Bloomsbury £8.99) is available at the insidethegames.biz shop. To follow him on Twitter click here.