To be or not to be. That is the question.

Hamlet's angst seems trite compared to the same poser faced by Scotland this week. To be or not to be Independent.

Actually, the question is simply Yes or No.

But it seems the two most crucial words are neither yes nor no, but Don't Know.

The Don't Knows in the opinion polls before the referendum are said to number around 20 per cent - so ultimately the current minority will decide Scotland's future; its politics and geopolitics, its economics, its currency and crucially for much of such a passionate population, its sport.

Who knows what the Don't Knows ultimately will favour?

Ironically, there is so much we don't know about the whole conundrum, not least the effect it will have on the games Scotland plays, who plays them and with whom, for generations to come.

Issues are being aired and angrily debated, if a little belatedly as panic sets in at Westminster and among those who orchestrate and administrate British sport.

The British government obviously hasn't a clue what will happen in the event of Scotland declaring a blue and white UDI. Neither does the government of sport on either side of the border, however much they may try to convince us otherwise.

A "yes" vote will spark tremendous uncertainty on both sides of the border
©AFP/Getty Images



Then only certainty is uncertainty. It's an absolute mess. A maze of muddled thinking and conjecture.

There isn't a multi-sports body that has a clear view on what may lie ahead.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) doesn't know. Nor the British Olympic Association, UK Sport, Sport England, sportscotland, or the umbrella "sports parliament", the Sport and Recreation Alliance, who at least have canvassed member organisations.

But they have to admit the overall reaction is one of uncertainty and lack of clarity. Everyone seems to be scratching their heads, simply acknowledging that it is one heck of a situation, but what to do about it no-one knows.

Scotland's handful of sporting superstars - who would certainly be a loss to a united GB - don't seem to know either. Or even want to know.

Take Andy Murray. Is he is likely to miss out on defending his Olympic title in Rio if Scotland decides to go it alone?

Sources at the IOC hint it would be "virtually impossible" to endorse Scotland as a separate country in time for the 2016 Games. So Murray, like other Scottish sportsfolk, will be sidelined unless they continue to choose to compete for Team GB, which surely would then make them ineligible to represent their new native country in the following Olympics in 2020.

Or, as insidethegames has pointed out, take up an IOC offer of participation under the Olympic flag with the Olympic anthem greeting them rather than "Flower of Scotland" should they make it to the winners' podium.

Hardly what Alex Salmond would want to see or hear.

Would Andy Murray have to sit out a title defence at Rio 2016, or compete under the British or Olympic Flag rather than that of a newly independent Scotland? ©Getty Images



The yes-no vote presents an agonising tug-of-war for Scottish sport, and particularly those like Murray, who has been competing for Great Britain for 16 years. Murray, who does not have a vote as he now is resident in England - his Wimbledon home is just a short volley away from the scene of his history-making triumph last year - has always refused to be drawn on his views of Scottish independence, but asked during the recent US Championships who he would represent should Scotland split he said: "I imagine I would be playing for Scotland," adding: "But I haven't thought much about it yet because it is not looking too likely." That was before the latest polls dramatically narrowed the gap so he obviously now has some serious thinking to do.

Another Scottish high priest of sport who finds himself in a similarly tricky situation is Sir Craig Reedie. A former chair of the British Olympic Association and a principal architect of a successful London 2012, the 73-year-old Glaswegian is an influential IOC vice-president. He is known to be opposed to Scottish independence, yet wearing his IOC hat would be expected to help expedite Scotland's wish to compete separately in Rio.  However, he says he doubts there would be sufficient time for this to be ratified. "It would be very, very difficult because the IOC has tended to use recognition by the United Nations and I have no idea how long that would take."

We know too that it would also call into question Reedie's own role. Could he still represent GB on the IOC if Scotland, where he was born and still lives, becomes an independent nation?

Salmond has often been accused of using Caledonian sporting achievements for political gain. Not only did he pointedly flourish the Saltire in the Royal Box as Murray dutifully draped himself in the Union Jack after winning Wimbledon, but during London 2012 he had issued a good luck message urging people to cheer on the "Scolympians" - a combination of the words 'Scottish" and 'Olympians.'

This led to David Wilkie, their Olympic gold medal-winning swimmer, accusing the Scottish National Party government of trying to "hijack" the Commonwealth Games for political ends - a claim dismissed as unsubstantiated by Salmond's spokespeople.

Glasgow's successful staging of the Commonwealth Games this summer, and the success of home athletes, could sway some votes towards a "yes" ©Getty Images



I was asked by BBC Scotland last week (would they still be able to call themselves BBC I wonder) whether I still held the view I expressed here that Glasgow's superb staging of the Commonwealth Games, and the any successes achieved in them by Scottish athletes, might help sway a yes vote.

I still believe it could if the feelgood factor, particularly among impressionable younger voters, has remained lodged in the consciousness.

However, my Glaswegian son-in-law, now domiciled in Surrey and so like Murray does not have a vote, disagrees.

A Celtic fan, he believes it more likely that fellow Scots would only be influenced by sporting issues to put their X in the yes box had their football team actually beaten world champions Germany in the recent European Championships qualifier. Such joy really would have been unconfined.

The greatest temptation for sporting Scots to subscribe to the view that we are better together is based on funding and facilities.

Around 11 per cent of the athletes on UK Sport's world-class programme, which distributes £350 million ($565 million/€437 million) of exchequer and National Lottery funding every four years, are Scottish. But Scottish athletes made a contribution to one in five of the 65 medals won in London by Team GB.

British sport is 60 per cent funded by lottery (and pro rata ticket sales are said to be high in Scotland than in England) and 40 per cent by the UK Government.

The lottery funding settlement for Scotland, should it become independent, remains up in the air ©Getty Images



Supporters of Scottish nationalism have insisted that its share of the actual lottery investment in sport - estimated at around £37 million ($59 million/€46 million) – should simply be transferred to sportscotland. But the Government is understood to be adamant that the entire basis of the lottery funding settlement would have to be revisited.

Then there is another unanswered question. For whom will Scots compete in the qualifying competitions in the 18 months before the Games? Would Britain continue to select Scots in its teams in the wake of a yes vote?

Would UK Sport, which funds elite athletes, continue to bankroll Scots? Would it allow them to continue to train at its elite performance centres, most notably English Institute of Sport in Sheffield?

UK Sport's chief executive, Liz Nicholl, can only say at the moment that a yes vote would weaken the medal chances of both Scottish athletes and their British counterparts.

The British Olympic Association (BOA), chaired by Lord Coe, said it had not formed a view on what it would do if Scotland voted for independence.

"At this point in time, Team GB is made up of athletes from all eligible home nations and territories," say the BOA. "Once the referendum result is known, we will look at the possible consequences for a British Olympic team and act accordingly."

In other words, like the rest of us, even Lord Coe and co are Don't Knows.

All we do know is that should Scotland decide to do its own thing, Olympic sport will be left with a whole raft of problematical questions plus the real danger that any chance of Murray and co travelling the rocky road to Rio behind the Saltire rather than the Union Jack will disappear into a Scotch mist.

So never mind the Prince of Denmark's dilemma. What will happen if Scotland says "aye" on Independence Day is more akin to another Shakespearean tragedy much closer to home: Macbeth. "Hubble, bubble toil and trouble" Yes indeed. A real Witches' Brew.

Alan Hubbard is an award-winning sports columnist for The Independent on Sunday and a former sports editor of The Observer. He has covered a total of 16 Summer and Winter Games, 10 Commonwealth Games, several football World Cups and world title fights from Atlanta to Zaire.