When it was first mooted, and then announced last November as a combined Polish-Slovakian effort, it seemed almost the "other" bid, lost amid the freshness of Lviv and Almaty's attempts, the uncertain potential of Oslo, and the unpredictable suddenness of Beijing. For nobody seriously believed the International Olympic Committee (IOC) would make history by sanctioning a first joint bid and it therefore seemed destined to fail. 

Yet when attending the IOC orientation seminar in Lausanne the following month, the first test on a long and winding road ending in Kuala Lumpar in another 14 months time, of all the bids Kraków was the one which probably impressed me the most.

It was billed strongly as a Polish bid, taking advantage of the Slovakian stretch of the Tatra Mountains only for logistical reasons, as is permitted in the IOC Charter. It had a clear concept to raise the profile of Poland's second city, appeared to enjoy significant support from both the population and the higher echelons of the Government, and came from a country less affected by economic recession than its European counterparts. It also had a well-defined bid structure already in place and, in Olympic snowboarder-turned-politician Jagna Marczulajtis-Walczak, a bid leader of real potential.

The bid appeared to combine a historic city with a comparatively settled economy and strong popular support ©Getty Images



I reported back, to general incredulity it must be said, that Kraków 2022 was a bid to watch and a dark horse in the fledgling race.

From our perspective the first suggestion this was not the case came during the Winter Olympics in Sochi where of all the bids, Kraków was the only one not to hold an event for the media. This was due to the sudden death of Marczulajtis-Walczak's father, causing her to return to Poland for the remainder of the Games. While undoubtedly this was tragic, it seemed odd that over the remaining two weeks, she was unable to return, and no stand-in speaker was found.

And because of this, the majority of the Olympic press corps could not be wowed by the bid in the way I had been in Lausanne.

But still the momentum seemed strong and when the Application Files were submitted at the end of March, Kraków were the first to speak to the media. On an article on March 17, I still felt compelled to speak positively, writing that: "Unlike western Europe, Poland has a strong economy; Government and public support appears genuine and the incentive of bringing the country's second city of Kraków into the public eye is an appealing one." Most rashly, as it turned out, I added: "Their female-heavy bid team led by Olympic snowboarder turned Member of Parliament Jagna Marczułajtis-Walczak also appear strong."

Problems began for Kraków 2022 soon after their Application File was presented to the IOC in March ©Kraków 2022





A month later the bid was in disarray.

First the Mayor of Kraków, Jacek Majchrowski, caused widespread surprise by calling a vote, a sure sign of concern if almost all previous Olympic bidding referendums are anything to go by. Then we had another setback as press and public relations manager Paulina Guzik stepped down after barely two months in her post.

Both these developments provided an inkling that popular and political support was not what it seemed, and internal cohesion was not perfect either.

Then at the end of the SportAccord Convention in Turkey, we had the bombshell that Marczułajtis-Walczak was resigning because her husband, Andrzej Walczak, had attempted to bribe Polish journalists. Before departing to be replaced by Krakow Deputy Mayor Magdalena Sroka, Marczułajtis-Walczak refused to deny these claims and spoke instead of a "smear campaign" mounted against her.

The inkling had become more concrete. From then on the bid appeared doomed, with forecasts for the referendum always appearing negative and the enthusiasm which appeared to initially surround the bid having vanished.

When the final nail in the coffin was announced today, Mayor Majchrowski claimed that "when we started the effort to welcome the Olympics, we got solid support, expressed in particular in the polls". He added: "Unfortunately, the previous Bid Committee squandered trust and time we had to rebuild was too short."

That is certainly true, but there appears to have been a lot at play behind the scenes, most of which we will probably never find out about.

Kraków also hosted matches during Euro 2012, but that joint bid was far more successful, for Poland and for Ukraine ©AFP/Getty Images


But despite all of this, some more general conclusions can be drawn, in a four-horse race which could easily be down to two by the end of the year. 

Unlike Kraków, Lviv's bid has been dislodged by external rather than internal forces. A decision will be made on whether the bid will continue once the dust has settled from yesterday's Ukrainian Presidential election, where confectionery tycoon Petro Poroshenko has claimed victory. Even if the decision is made to press ahead, the bid is likely to be halted by the IOC at their Executive Board meeting in Lausanne from July 8 to 9.

That leaves Beijing, a bid distinctive so far mostly by its anonymity, and Kazakhstan's Almaty, which with every passing week seems the likeliest contender. Then there is Oslo. As with the other European bids, Oslo 2022 endured a terrible spring as public and Government support remained flaky at best, and staunchly opposed at worst.

The bid is likely to clear the IOC hurdle in July but will still struggle to gain the much needed Government support when a decision is made in the autumn. The visit of IOC President Thomas Bach last week, ostensibly to oversee preparations for the Lillehammer 2016 Winter Youth Olympics, but more significantly an attempt to turn the tide of Oslo 2022, did appear to help.

But the anti-OIympic lobby remains strong. Oslo could still be the winner, yet the most likely result is for the four-way European challenge, which also included a fateful bid from Stockholm withdrawn in January, will be over by Christmas.

So what does this say about bidding in general?

It is undoubtedly harder for a European city to bid these days since the economic crisis and the fact that Poland, one of the countries least affected by the recession, has been implicated illustrates the scale of this.

Copenhagen Lord Mayor Frank Jensen's idea of a joint bid between two cities from different countries appears flawed but could prove the way forward
©AFP/Getty Images





The 2024 race, where the European challenge to a more likely American attempt could come from Rome or Paris or Berlin, will face many of the same challenges. And with the results of the recent European elections suggesting wider upheaval across the old continent, this situation does not look like changing any time soon.

One audacious solution is to launch a joint bid from different countries. This was suggested by the Lord Mayor of Copenhagen Frank Jensen, in relation to a bid between his city and the German one Hamburg. That seems unlikely to happen, but reforming the bid cities race is undoubtedly a key part of the Agenda 2020 bid process.

The Committee on Bidding Procedures, headed by IOC vice-president John Coates, and also containing vice-presidential colleague Nawal El Moutawakel, London 2012 heavyweights Sebastian Coe and Tessa Jowell, and Istanbul 2020 head Hasan Arat, clearly has a lot of work to do.

But as we have seen, creating a successful Olympic bid is far from straightforward and is dependent on a wide variety of different factors. Kraków failed because of this wider context, but most of all because of their poor communication, coordination and other internal imperfections.

And if a European bid is going to win an Olympic race in the near-future, it will have to be an absolutely perfect one.

Nick Butler is a reporter for insidethegames. To follow him on Twitter click here.