A strange race is winding towards a still not wholly predictable conclusion in a strained atmosphere, as Olympic bigwigs gather beside the River Plate for a hugely significant International Olympic Committee (IOC) Session.

After the slick and sophisticated war-games of recent Olympic-host contests, this three-way fight between Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo to host the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games has at times been more like a session of rock, paper, scissors.

This is by no means entirely the fault of the three teams of contestants, who are trying their hearts out: the world has become a more turbulent and unpredictable place since the last such race reached its denouement in Copenhagen, in the presence of the world's most powerful man, and some of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune hurled at the current trio of candidate cities would be beyond the capacity of any bid committee entirely to control.

In such circumstances, the city that takes the chequered flag in the Buenos Aires Hilton on Saturday (September 7) evening may be determined in no small measure by the extent to which the mood of IOC members, their troubles largely rinsed away by still copious floods of televisions and marketing dollars, has been transformed by the tribulations afflicting so many people and organisations outside the bubble.

All is still to play for at the IOC Session in Buenos Aires


The more chastened and uneasy this unique electorate feels about the state of the world, the more circumstances are likely to favour Madrid's increasingly shrewdly managed bargain-basement Olympic project.

The tense atmosphere is a result partly of another high-stakes race whose outcome is soon to be determined: the competition to succeed Jacques Rogge as IOC President.

With September 10 the key date for that particular contest, six of the biggest beasts in the Olympic jungle are campaigning every bit as assiduously as the bid cities themselves, while endeavouring outwardly to maintain every appearance of business as usual, of camaraderie and bonhomie.

At such times, every statement can be loaded, every gesture stiff with self-conscious calculation; the contestants would not be human were this not so: one of them, after all - but only one - will inherit the mantle of the most powerful man in sport, in all probability for 12 years.

These last few days before IOC members pass their verdict promise to be made almost more uncomfortable because so many observers suspect that one of the candidates - Germany's Thomas Bach - though not impregnable, is close to having the race in the bag.

Thomas Bach is close to having the IOC Presidency within his grasp



While the candidates and their staunchest supporters are pouring their energies into what will surely be one of the most intense weeks of lobbying of their lives, therefore, the minds of others now streaming into Buenos Aires will be starting to turn to manoeuvring for position in the eight-year Presidential term that lies ahead.

It is all very uncomfortable.

The body language late last night when Executive Board members and their wives/partners returned to the Hilton lobby from a steak dinner across town was incredibly revealing.

While the partners, in one corner, seemed genuinely to be revelling in each other's company, the Board members, hunched around a bar-room table 20 metres away appeared uncharacteristically stiff and subdued.

Having so many of the IOC's top brass visibly consumed by this other contest must, of course, be frustrating for the bidding cities that must sense more keenly than anyone how tight and turbulent their race is.

Even with the huge strides Madrid has made in recent months, aided by several formidable strokes of luck, it remains impossible to call a winner with any degree of confidence.

What I think can be said is that the victor will be decided by the second-choice votes of the third-placed candidate.

Madrid has polled strongly in the past in the first round of voting; for this reason, and this reason alone, I see them as the least likely of the three to go out at this stage.

They also have the small advantage of presenting last on Saturday.

This gives them the opportunity to send IOC members off to a well-earned lunch with the words of Felipe, Prince of Asturias, the bid's newly-unearthed rock star, ringing in their ears.

Felipe, Prince of Asturias, (centre) adds royal clout to Madrid 2020's bid

Istanbul and Tokyo have each had formidable external issues to deal with inconveniently close to the finish line that would almost certainly have destroyed their chances in any other recent contest of this type.

Both are still hanging in there, bloodied but unbowed. Either might yet win.

Hasan Arat, the Istanbul bid's relentlessly upbeat chairman, offered a neat turn of phrase at a media conference in the Sheraton.

"I am a basketball player," he said, beaming like Turkish sunshine.

"I need to play the last three seconds."

Every member of all three teams in this strangest of contests would do well to follow this advice.

David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup and London 2012. Owen's Twitter feed can be accessed here.