Vladimir Putin is not a stupid man.

Whether as President or Prime Minister, he has been the most powerful figure in Russia for well over a decade.

His triumphant, bravura performance for the benefit of the world's media after Russia was handed the FIFA World Cup in Zurich in December 2010, gave those of us who witnessed it a taste of the authority, self-sufficiency and charm that have kept his grasp firmly on the levers of power since he emerged as Prime Minister in 1999.

So why in late June, at just the moment when the global spotlight was about to fall on the return of the Olympic Games to Russian soil for the first time in a generation, did he sign a contentious new anti-gay law, handing the measure's opponents a potent weapon with which to whip up an international furore?

The move is even more superficially perplexing given the importance Putin has accorded sport as a means of rebuilding Russia's international prestige and internal infrastructure.

The 2018 World Cup and the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics and Paralympics are, after all, merely the two biggest elements in a Russian decade of sport, which got under way on July 6, when Putin himself officially opened the 2013 Summer Universiade in Kazan, and will continue this week with the World Athletics Championships in Moscow.


This will see a succession of the world's most prestigious international sports events heading to Russia, nose to tail.

The timing of the new law might, I suppose, be a mistake.

This is a tense and busy period, with the uneasy rapprochement with the United States that has characterised most of Putin's period in the Kremlin coming under increasing strain.

Perhaps, just perhaps the strength of international condemnation has taken Putin and his advisers by surprise.

I suppose it is also possible that the Russian legislative timetable might be beyond the ability of even this singularly powerful President to influence.

On balance, though, I think a different explanation is more likely.

It seems to me, firstly, that the downside of the present uproar for Putin is more limited than some perhaps imagine.

Rightly or wrongly, international sports bodies are hardly noted for dashing to the barricades on such matters.

The level of repression would probably have to get very severe before the staging of competitions was put in doubt; the awarding of new competitions to Russia, admittedly, might well be affected.


There seem to be grounds for thinking, moreover, however deplorably, that the new law will have much support within Russia.

A recent survey conducted by the Levada Centre found, after polling 1,600 residents in 130 Russian cities, that 50 per cent felt "irritated and disgusted" by the gay community and 22 per cent wanted "compulsory treatment for homosexuals".

If you consider, in addition, that the issue is eminently susceptible to being portrayed to a Russian domestic audience, not as a question of human rights, but as an attack by international liberals on Russian sovereignty, then Putin has in his hands a tinderbox for stoking the fires of Russian patriotism should it become expedient to do so.

One circumstance in which, I would suggest, such a tool might be helpful to him is if the Brazil effect - which has seen thousands of ordinary Brazilians take to the streets to protest the Government's spending priorities - spreads to Russia.

There are obvious parallels: both countries are hosting a World Cup and an Olympic Games in rapid succession; and both are inhabited by millions of voters struggling to make ends meet while some of their compatriots prosper.

Though Russia's current prestige-through-sport strategy seems perfectly rational, the costs are considerable.

Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko last year said Russia would spend a projected $19.2 billion (£12.6 billion/€14.8 billion) on getting ready to host the World Cup, with most of the budget earmarked for upgrades to transport and hospitality infrastructure.


The cost of Sochi will run into further tens of billions of dollars.

I am not aware of Brazil-style street protests in Russia as yet, but opposition leader Boris Nemtsov has alleged that large sums have been embezzled from the Sochi 2014 fund and another recent Levada survey found that nearly two-thirds of Russians were unhappy with the Government's spending on Sochi.

Should the mood in Russia turn further against the desirability of hosting glitzy international sports events, in the way that it has done elsewhere over recent months, then Putin, with several years of major sports and infrastructural investment ahead of him, could be left with a big problem.

Don't get me wrong: I abhor discrimination and would love to see the new law repealed; but this, I think, is something of the context in which we might be well-advised to view it.

David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup and London 2012. To follow him on Twitter click here.